History

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Thu Jun 25 Fri Jul 24
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Jul 2, 2026

81106:0021:0005:59 Β· avg 5.0 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt06:00 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt06:19 Β· avg 4.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt06:29 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt06:39 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt06:49 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt06:59 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt07:09 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt07:19 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt07:29 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt07:39 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt07:49 Β· avg 0.6 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt07:59 Β· avg 0.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt08:09 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt08:19 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt08:29 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:39 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:49 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:59 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:09 Β· avg 0.4 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt09:19 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt09:29 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt09:39 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt09:49 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:59 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt10:19 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt10:29 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 0.5 kt10:39 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 0.5 kt10:49 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt10:59 Β· avg 1.0 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt11:09 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt11:19 Β· avg 3.9 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt11:29 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt11:39 Β· avg 5.7 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt11:49 Β· avg 7.8 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt11:59 Β· avg 7.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:09 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:19 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:29 Β· avg 7.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:39 Β· avg 7.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:49 Β· avg 6.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:59 Β· avg 6.3 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt13:09 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:19 Β· avg 5.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:29 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:39 Β· avg 5.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt13:49 Β· avg 4.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt13:59 Β· avg 7.1 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt14:09 Β· avg 6.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:19 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:29 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:39 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt14:49 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:59 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:09 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:19 Β· avg 6.0 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:29 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt15:39 Β· avg 6.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt15:49 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:59 Β· avg 6.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:09 Β· avg 5.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt16:19 Β· avg 5.0 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt16:29 Β· avg 6.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:39 Β· avg 4.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt16:49 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt16:59 Β· avg 5.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:09 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:19 Β· avg 7.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:29 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:39 Β· avg 7.0 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:49 Β· avg 5.5 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:59 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt18:09 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt18:19 Β· avg 4.6 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt18:29 Β· avg 6.0 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt18:39 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt18:49 Β· avg 4.4 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt18:59 Β· avg 3.1 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt19:09 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt19:19 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt19:29 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt19:39 Β· avg 1.8 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt19:49 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt19:58 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Jul 2, 2026 Β· as written at the time

GO

11 of 14 rules green.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental MAYBE GO 20% Β· MAYBE 47% Β· NO GO 33%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) morning solar; (βˆ’) dew-point spread, FΓΆhn Ξ”.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 4% Β· MAYBE 43% Β· NO GO 53%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.