History
30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.
Last 30 days
Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast โ logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast โ HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session โฅ 1 h)
Wed Jun 24
Thu Jul 23
session (โฅ 1 h โฅ 11 kt)
marginal (โฅ 1 h โฅ 8 kt)
no wind
no data
thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted ยท actual row: observed)
Jul 23, 2026
For today, Jul 23, 2026
NO GO
700 hPa crossflow 25 kt โ valley decoupled
๐ค ML โ logistic
experimental
NO GO
GO 26% ยท
MAYBE 14% ยท
NO GO 60%
Strongest inputs โ
(+) morning solar; (โ) pressure ฮ (thermik), dew-point spread.
๐ค ML โ HGB ยท black box
experimental
NO GO
GO 0% ยท
MAYBE 0% ยท
NO GO 100%
Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.
Experimental shadow models โ they never drive the verdict.
How good are they? โ
How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated โ shown for comparison only.