30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.
Jul 5, 2026
avg wind
gust
ignition (8 kt)
session (11 kt)
For Jul 5, 2026 ·
as written at the time
NO GO
700 hPa crossflow 29 kt — valley decoupled
⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.
🤖 ML — logistic
experimental
MAYBE
GO 10% ·
MAYBE 48% ·
NO GO 42%
Strongest inputs —
(+) Bolzano pressure; (−) dew-point spread, rained yesterday.
🤖 ML — HGB · black box
experimental
GO
GO 90% ·
MAYBE 5% ·
NO GO 4%
Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.
Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict.
How good are they? →