30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.
Jul 8, 2026
avg wind
gust
ignition (8 kt)
session (11 kt)
For Jul 8, 2026 ·
as written at the time
NO GO
72% daytime cloud + only 206 W/m² solar — no insolation to drive a thermal
⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.
🤖 ML — logistic
experimental
NO GO
GO 4% ·
MAYBE 20% ·
NO GO 76%
Strongest inputs —
(−) morning solar, pressure Δ (thermik), dew-point spread.
🤖 ML — HGB · black box
experimental
NO GO
GO 1% ·
MAYBE 6% ·
NO GO 93%
Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.
Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict.
How good are they? →