30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.
Jul 16, 2026
avg wind
gust
ignition (8 kt)
session (11 kt)
For Jul 16, 2026 ·
as written at the time
NO GO
700 hPa crossflow 26 kt — valley decoupled
⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.
🤖 ML — logistic
experimental
GO
GO 36% ·
MAYBE 35% ·
NO GO 29%
Strongest inputs —
(+) morning solar; (−) pressure Δ (thermik), CAPE.
🤖 ML — HGB · black box
experimental
GO
GO 63% ·
MAYBE 19% ·
NO GO 18%
Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.
Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict.
How good are they? →