History

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Thu Jun 25 Fri Jul 24
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Jul 19, 2026

81106:0021:0007:39 · avg 3.7 kt · gust 6.5 kt07:49 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 6.5 kt07:58 · avg 0.9 kt · gust 3.2 kt08:09 · avg 0.7 kt · gust 2.2 kt08:19 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 2.2 kt08:29 · avg 0.6 kt · gust 3.2 kt08:39 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt08:49 · avg 1.9 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:59 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:05 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:19 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 5.9 kt09:29 · avg 1.9 kt · gust 4.9 kt09:36 · avg 2.1 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:43 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:02 · avg 9.2 kt · gust 9.2 kt10:49 · avg 8.3 kt · gust 23.2 kt10:59 · avg 7.0 kt · gust 23.2 kt11:02 · avg 7.0 kt · gust 15.1 kt11:29 · avg 9.4 kt · gust 13.0 kt11:38 · avg 8.2 kt · gust 10.8 kt12:39 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt12:49 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 4.3 kt12:59 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt13:09 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 4.3 kt13:19 · avg 2.0 kt · gust 5.9 kt13:29 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt13:39 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 2.2 kt13:49 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 3.2 kt13:59 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt14:09 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 3.2 kt14:19 · avg 1.7 kt · gust 4.3 kt14:29 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt14:39 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 4.3 kt14:49 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 10.8 kt14:59 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 10.8 kt15:09 · avg 6.6 kt · gust 11.9 kt15:19 · avg 5.6 kt · gust 10.8 kt15:29 · avg 3.6 kt · gust 10.3 kt15:39 · avg 2.0 kt · gust 7.6 kt15:49 · avg 2.4 kt · gust 4.3 kt15:59 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 4.9 kt16:09 · avg 2.8 kt · gust 5.9 kt16:19 · avg 3.1 kt · gust 5.9 kt16:29 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 4.9 kt16:39 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 13.5 kt16:49 · avg 8.9 kt · gust 14.6 kt16:59 · avg 7.2 kt · gust 13.0 kt17:09 · avg 9.9 kt · gust 17.3 kt17:19 · avg 9.8 kt · gust 18.9 kt17:29 · avg 14.7 kt · gust 17.3 kt17:39 · avg 14.2 kt · gust 17.3 kt17:49 · avg 14.8 kt · gust 17.8 kt17:59 · avg 14.5 kt · gust 17.8 kt18:09 · avg 13.6 kt · gust 17.8 kt18:19 · avg 13.1 kt · gust 15.1 kt18:29 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 14.6 kt18:39 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 11.9 kt18:49 · avg 8.8 kt · gust 11.9 kt18:59 · avg 8.8 kt · gust 13.0 kt19:09 · avg 7.3 kt · gust 10.8 kt19:19 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 9.2 kt19:29 · avg 5.4 kt · gust 7.6 kt19:39 · avg 6.4 kt · gust 9.2 kt19:49 · avg 6.9 kt · gust 8.6 kt19:59 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 8.6 kt20:04 · avg 5.5 kt · gust 7.6 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Jul 19, 2026 · as written at the time

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 34 kt — valley decoupled

⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental NO GO GO 17% · MAYBE 19% · NO GO 65%

Strongest inputs — (−) yesterday rain, pressure Δ (thermik), daytime cloud.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental NO GO GO 2% · MAYBE 7% · NO GO 91%

Most distinctive inputs: daytime cloud, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.