History

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Thu Jun 25 Fri Jul 24
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Jul 20, 2026

81106:0021:0007:09 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 4.3 kt07:16 · avg 1.3 kt · gust 2.2 kt07:59 · avg 8.6 kt · gust 9.2 kt08:09 · avg 7.3 kt · gust 9.2 kt08:19 · avg 8.8 kt · gust 11.9 kt08:29 · avg 8.8 kt · gust 10.8 kt08:39 · avg 8.0 kt · gust 10.3 kt08:49 · avg 5.8 kt · gust 9.2 kt08:59 · avg 4.5 kt · gust 7.6 kt09:09 · avg 4.8 kt · gust 8.6 kt09:19 · avg 6.8 kt · gust 9.2 kt09:29 · avg 8.6 kt · gust 10.8 kt09:39 · avg 9.2 kt · gust 13.0 kt09:49 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 13.5 kt09:59 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 13.5 kt10:09 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 14.6 kt10:19 · avg 9.5 kt · gust 13.5 kt10:29 · avg 9.1 kt · gust 11.9 kt10:39 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 13.0 kt10:49 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt10:59 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt11:09 · avg 10.3 kt · gust 13.0 kt11:19 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 13.5 kt11:29 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 13.0 kt11:39 · avg 11.1 kt · gust 13.5 kt11:49 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 13.5 kt11:59 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 14.6 kt12:09 · avg 11.1 kt · gust 14.6 kt12:19 · avg 12.0 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:29 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:39 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:49 · avg 11.0 kt · gust 15.1 kt12:59 · avg 12.6 kt · gust 17.8 kt13:09 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:19 · avg 12.3 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:29 · avg 11.8 kt · gust 16.2 kt13:39 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:49 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 15.1 kt13:59 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 16.2 kt14:09 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt14:19 · avg 9.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt14:29 · avg 8.1 kt · gust 14.6 kt14:39 · avg 9.6 kt · gust 16.2 kt14:49 · avg 8.4 kt · gust 13.0 kt14:59 · avg 8.1 kt · gust 13.0 kt15:09 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 17.3 kt15:19 · avg 9.3 kt · gust 14.6 kt15:29 · avg 9.3 kt · gust 13.5 kt15:39 · avg 9.4 kt · gust 14.6 kt15:49 · avg 9.0 kt · gust 15.1 kt15:59 · avg 7.9 kt · gust 13.5 kt16:09 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 11.9 kt16:19 · avg 7.6 kt · gust 13.0 kt16:29 · avg 5.6 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:39 · avg 8.2 kt · gust 13.5 kt16:49 · avg 7.6 kt · gust 13.0 kt16:59 · avg 8.2 kt · gust 13.0 kt17:09 · avg 7.0 kt · gust 10.8 kt17:19 · avg 6.8 kt · gust 10.3 kt17:29 · avg 5.6 kt · gust 10.3 kt17:39 · avg 7.7 kt · gust 13.0 kt17:49 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 10.3 kt17:59 · avg 7.0 kt · gust 10.3 kt18:09 · avg 8.2 kt · gust 13.0 kt18:19 · avg 9.0 kt · gust 13.0 kt18:29 · avg 8.8 kt · gust 11.9 kt18:39 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 9.2 kt18:49 · avg 7.0 kt · gust 10.8 kt18:59 · avg 6.4 kt · gust 8.6 kt19:09 · avg 5.2 kt · gust 7.6 kt19:19 · avg 5.2 kt · gust 8.6 kt19:29 · avg 4.0 kt · gust 7.6 kt19:39 · avg 4.3 kt · gust 6.5 kt19:49 · avg 5.0 kt · gust 8.6 kt19:59 · avg 6.6 kt · gust 9.2 kt20:05 · avg 5.8 kt · gust 8.6 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Jul 20, 2026 · as written at the time

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 26 kt — valley decoupled

⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental NO GO GO 31% · MAYBE 21% · NO GO 48%

Strongest inputs — (+) rained yesterday, dew-point spread; (−) pressure Δ (thermik).

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental NO GO GO 3% · MAYBE 32% · NO GO 65%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.