Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Tue Sep 22 Wed Oct 21
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 7, 2026

81106:0021:0008:19 Β· avg 9.8 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt08:29 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt08:39 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt08:49 Β· avg 8.3 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt08:59 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt09:09 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt09:19 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt09:29 Β· avg 6.0 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 4.7 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt09:49 Β· avg 3.6 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:59 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:09 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:19 Β· avg 1.3 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:29 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:39 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:49 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:59 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt11:09 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt11:19 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt11:29 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt11:39 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt11:49 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt11:59 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:09 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:13 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:29 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:39 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:49 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt12:59 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:09 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt13:19 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt13:29 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:39 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:49 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:59 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt14:02 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt14:18 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt14:29 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:39 Β· avg 6.7 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:49 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:59 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:09 Β· avg 9.2 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt15:19 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt15:29 Β· avg 4.0 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt15:39 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt15:49 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt15:59 Β· avg 0.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt16:03 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt16:47 Β· avg 2.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 7, 2026

NO GO

850 hPa 14 kt from 206Β° (SSE) β€” counters the N-thermal

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental GO GO 34% Β· MAYBE 34% Β· NO GO 32%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”, daytime cloud; (βˆ’) dew-point spread.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 7% Β· MAYBE 24% Β· NO GO 70%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, overnight cloud.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.