Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23 Thu Oct 22
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 20, 2026

81106:0021:0008:29 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:31 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:59 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:09 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt09:19 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:29 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 1.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:49 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:59 Β· avg 4.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:09 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:19 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:29 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:39 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:49 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:59 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:09 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt11:19 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt11:29 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:37 Β· avg 2.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:49 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:59 Β· avg 3.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:00 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:19 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:20 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:39 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt12:44 Β· avg 3.9 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt12:54 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt13:29 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt13:39 Β· avg 9.6 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt13:49 Β· avg 11.4 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt13:59 Β· avg 7.1 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:09 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt14:19 Β· avg 4.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:29 Β· avg 12.0 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt14:39 Β· avg 12.5 kt Β· gust 20.0 kt14:49 Β· avg 16.9 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt14:59 Β· avg 18.6 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt15:09 Β· avg 16.7 kt Β· gust 22.1 kt15:19 Β· avg 17.3 kt Β· gust 24.3 kt15:29 Β· avg 16.7 kt Β· gust 23.2 kt15:39 Β· avg 15.9 kt Β· gust 24.8 kt15:49 Β· avg 15.8 kt Β· gust 22.1 kt15:59 Β· avg 15.2 kt Β· gust 21.6 kt16:09 Β· avg 14.2 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt16:19 Β· avg 13.6 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt16:29 Β· avg 13.2 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt16:39 Β· avg 13.6 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt16:49 Β· avg 13.3 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt16:59 Β· avg 10.8 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt17:09 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt17:19 Β· avg 5.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt17:29 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt17:39 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:49 Β· avg 10.0 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt17:59 Β· avg 6.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt18:09 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 20, 2026 Β· as written at the time

NO GO

850 hPa 19 kt from 207Β° (SSE) β€” counters the N-thermal

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental GO GO 53% Β· MAYBE 8% Β· NO GO 39%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”, dew-point spread; (βˆ’) pressure Ξ” (thermik).

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 5% Β· MAYBE 0% Β· NO GO 95%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, Munich pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.