Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements
30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.
Last 30 days
Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β₯ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23
Thu Oct 22
session (β₯ 1 h β₯ 11 kt)
marginal (β₯ 1 h β₯ 8 kt)
no wind
no data
thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)
Oct 22, 2026
For today, Oct 22, 2026
MAYBE
dew-point spread 1.6Β°C β air too moist, solar energy lost to evaporation
π€ ML β logistic
experimental
NO GO
GO 19% Β·
MAYBE 20% Β·
NO GO 61%
Strongest inputs β
(+) FΓΆhn Ξ, dew-point spread; (β) pressure Ξ (thermik).
π€ ML β HGB Β· black box
experimental
NO GO
GO 0% Β·
MAYBE 0% Β·
NO GO 100%
Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, overnight cloud, Bolzano pressure.
Experimental shadow models β they never drive the verdict.
How good are they? β
How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β shown for comparison only.