Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23 Thu Oct 22
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Sep 29, 2026

81106:0021:0008:18 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt08:29 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt08:39 Β· avg 5.2 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt08:49 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt08:59 Β· avg 4.1 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:09 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt09:19 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt09:29 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:49 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:59 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 1.3 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:19 Β· avg 0.6 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt10:29 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt10:39 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 0.5 kt10:49 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:59 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt11:09 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt11:19 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt11:29 Β· avg 0.4 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:39 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt11:49 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt11:59 Β· avg 0.6 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:09 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt12:19 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:29 Β· avg 9.7 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt12:39 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:49 Β· avg 10.2 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt12:59 Β· avg 10.6 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt13:09 Β· avg 10.6 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt13:19 Β· avg 10.8 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt13:29 Β· avg 10.9 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt13:39 Β· avg 11.4 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt13:49 Β· avg 11.8 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt13:59 Β· avg 12.1 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt14:09 Β· avg 12.0 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt14:19 Β· avg 11.5 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt14:29 Β· avg 11.1 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt14:39 Β· avg 11.2 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt14:49 Β· avg 11.6 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt14:59 Β· avg 11.3 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt15:09 Β· avg 11.3 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt15:19 Β· avg 11.8 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt15:29 Β· avg 11.4 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt15:39 Β· avg 11.5 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt15:49 Β· avg 11.1 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt15:59 Β· avg 11.1 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt16:09 Β· avg 10.9 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt16:19 Β· avg 10.7 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt16:29 Β· avg 10.5 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt16:39 Β· avg 9.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt16:49 Β· avg 10.6 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt16:59 Β· avg 9.8 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt17:09 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:19 Β· avg 10.1 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt17:29 Β· avg 8.5 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt17:39 Β· avg 8.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:49 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:59 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt18:09 Β· avg 8.0 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt18:19 Β· avg 8.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt18:29 Β· avg 9.3 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt18:39 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt18:49 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt18:55 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Sep 29, 2026 Β· as written at the time

GO

10 of 14 rules green.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental GO GO 54% Β· MAYBE 22% Β· NO GO 24%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) Bolzano pressure, FΓΆhn Ξ”; (βˆ’) pressure Ξ” (thermik).

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental MAYBE GO 31% Β· MAYBE 35% Β· NO GO 33%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.