Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Tue Sep 22 Wed Oct 21
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Oct 15, 2026

81106:0021:0008:17 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 4.9 kt08:45 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:59 · avg 2.8 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:09 · avg 2.8 kt · gust 4.9 kt09:19 · avg 2.8 kt · gust 4.9 kt09:29 · avg 2.9 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:39 · avg 3.0 kt · gust 4.9 kt09:49 · avg 3.8 kt · gust 6.5 kt09:59 · avg 4.2 kt · gust 5.9 kt10:09 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 4.9 kt10:13 · avg 3.0 kt · gust 4.3 kt10:59 · avg 3.0 kt · gust 4.3 kt11:02 · avg 2.5 kt · gust 3.2 kt11:19 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt11:25 · avg 1.2 kt · gust 2.2 kt11:39 · avg 1.4 kt · gust 2.2 kt11:49 · avg 0.6 kt · gust 1.6 kt11:58 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.5 kt12:09 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt12:19 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 2.2 kt12:24 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 1.6 kt12:39 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 1.6 kt12:49 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt12:59 · avg 1.9 kt · gust 4.9 kt13:09 · avg 2.6 kt · gust 4.3 kt13:19 · avg 2.3 kt · gust 8.6 kt13:29 · avg 7.5 kt · gust 10.8 kt13:39 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 13.0 kt13:49 · avg 9.6 kt · gust 13.0 kt13:59 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 13.0 kt14:09 · avg 10.2 kt · gust 13.0 kt14:19 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 13.5 kt14:29 · avg 9.1 kt · gust 13.5 kt14:39 · avg 9.6 kt · gust 13.0 kt14:49 · avg 11.0 kt · gust 14.6 kt14:59 · avg 9.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt15:09 · avg 9.6 kt · gust 11.9 kt15:19 · avg 8.8 kt · gust 11.9 kt15:29 · avg 8.2 kt · gust 10.8 kt15:39 · avg 8.6 kt · gust 11.9 kt15:49 · avg 7.3 kt · gust 10.3 kt15:59 · avg 6.6 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:09 · avg 6.8 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:19 · avg 7.3 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:29 · avg 8.4 kt · gust 10.3 kt16:39 · avg 7.7 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:49 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 10.8 kt16:59 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 9.2 kt17:09 · avg 6.3 kt · gust 8.6 kt17:19 · avg 7.2 kt · gust 9.2 kt17:29 · avg 6.2 kt · gust 8.6 kt17:39 · avg 4.7 kt · gust 7.6 kt17:49 · avg 4.5 kt · gust 6.5 kt17:59 · avg 4.4 kt · gust 7.6 kt18:09 · avg 4.6 kt · gust 7.6 kt18:19 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 4.3 kt18:24 · avg 1.7 kt · gust 3.2 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 15, 2026

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 25 kt — valley decoupled

🤖 ML — logistic experimental MAYBE GO 37% · MAYBE 42% · NO GO 21%

Strongest inputs — (+) dew-point spread, Bolzano pressure; (−) pressure Δ (thermik).

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental GO GO 85% · MAYBE 8% · NO GO 7%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, Munich pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.