Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast โ€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast โ€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session โ‰ฅ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23 Thu Oct 22
session (โ‰ฅ 1 h โ‰ฅ 11 kt) marginal (โ‰ฅ 1 h โ‰ฅ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted ยท actual row: observed)

Oct 21, 2026

81106:0021:0009:09 ยท avg 11.6 kt ยท gust 15.1 kt09:19 ยท avg 11.2 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt09:29 ยท avg 11.1 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt09:39 ยท avg 11.0 kt ยท gust 13.0 kt09:49 ยท avg 10.4 kt ยท gust 13.0 kt09:59 ยท avg 10.5 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt10:07 ยท avg 9.8 kt ยท gust 11.9 kt10:19 ยท avg 11.1 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt10:29 ยท avg 10.7 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt10:39 ยท avg 11.3 kt ยท gust 14.6 kt10:49 ยท avg 11.2 kt ยท gust 14.6 kt10:59 ยท avg 10.9 kt ยท gust 14.6 kt11:09 ยท avg 10.4 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt11:19 ยท avg 10.2 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt11:29 ยท avg 9.0 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt11:39 ยท avg 10.2 kt ยท gust 13.0 kt11:49 ยท avg 9.0 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt11:59 ยท avg 8.7 kt ยท gust 11.9 kt12:09 ยท avg 9.3 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt12:19 ยท avg 8.3 kt ยท gust 11.9 kt12:29 ยท avg 9.7 kt ยท gust 13.0 kt12:39 ยท avg 8.8 kt ยท gust 13.0 kt12:49 ยท avg 10.2 kt ยท gust 15.1 kt12:59 ยท avg 10.3 kt ยท gust 13.0 kt13:05 ยท avg 10.6 kt ยท gust 13.5 kt15:16 ยท avg 8.2 kt ยท gust 11.9 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 21, 2026 ยท as written at the time

NO GO

100% daytime cloud + only 172 W/mยฒ solar โ€” no insolation to drive a thermal

๐Ÿค– ML โ€” logistic experimental NO GO GO 17% ยท MAYBE 6% ยท NO GO 77%

Strongest inputs โ€” (+) dew-point spread; (โˆ’) pressure ฮ” (thermik), morning solar.

๐Ÿค– ML โ€” HGB ยท black box experimental NO GO GO 0% ยท MAYBE 0% ยท NO GO 100%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, daytime cloud, Innsbruck pressure.

Experimental shadow models โ€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? โ†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated โ€” shown for comparison only.