Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Tue Sep 22 Wed Oct 21
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 9, 2026

81106:0021:0008:17 Β· avg 5.7 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt08:49 Β· avg 3.9 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt08:59 Β· avg 3.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:09 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:19 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt09:29 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt09:39 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt09:49 Β· avg 1.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:59 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:09 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:19 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:29 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:39 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:49 Β· avg 1.3 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:59 Β· avg 1.0 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt11:09 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt11:19 Β· avg 0.4 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:29 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:39 Β· avg 1.0 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt11:49 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:59 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:09 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt12:19 Β· avg 1.0 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:29 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:39 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt12:49 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt12:59 Β· avg 8.1 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt13:09 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:19 Β· avg 9.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:29 Β· avg 9.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:39 Β· avg 9.7 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt13:49 Β· avg 9.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:59 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt14:09 Β· avg 10.5 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:19 Β· avg 9.5 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:29 Β· avg 9.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt14:39 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:49 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:59 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:09 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:19 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt15:29 Β· avg 7.0 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:39 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:49 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:59 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt16:09 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt16:19 Β· avg 7.3 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:29 Β· avg 9.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt16:39 Β· avg 10.2 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt16:49 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt16:59 Β· avg 8.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:09 Β· avg 8.1 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:19 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:29 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:39 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:43 Β· avg 8.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 9, 2026

MAYBE

dew-point spread 1.6Β°C β€” air too moist, solar energy lost to evaporation

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental NO GO GO 24% Β· MAYBE 21% Β· NO GO 55%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) dew-point spread; (βˆ’) pressure Ξ” (thermik), FΓΆhn Ξ”.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 2% Β· MAYBE 15% Β· NO GO 83%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, overnight cloud, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.