Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23 Thu Oct 22
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Oct 16, 2026

81106:0021:0008:19 · avg 2.7 kt · gust 4.9 kt08:29 · avg 3.0 kt · gust 4.9 kt08:39 · avg 2.9 kt · gust 5.9 kt08:49 · avg 3.4 kt · gust 5.9 kt08:59 · avg 2.6 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:09 · avg 2.3 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:19 · avg 2.0 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:29 · avg 1.4 kt · gust 2.2 kt09:39 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:49 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:59 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:09 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:19 · avg 1.7 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:23 · avg 1.4 kt · gust 2.2 kt10:49 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.5 kt10:59 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt11:09 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt11:19 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt11:29 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt11:39 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt11:49 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt11:59 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt12:09 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt12:19 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 1.6 kt12:29 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 1.6 kt12:39 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt12:47 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 1.6 kt12:59 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt13:09 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt13:12 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 1.6 kt13:56 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 1.6 kt14:09 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt14:19 · avg 2.5 kt · gust 6.5 kt14:29 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 11.9 kt14:39 · avg 9.8 kt · gust 11.9 kt14:49 · avg 9.2 kt · gust 10.8 kt14:59 · avg 8.7 kt · gust 10.3 kt15:09 · avg 8.1 kt · gust 10.3 kt15:19 · avg 9.2 kt · gust 10.8 kt15:29 · avg 9.2 kt · gust 10.8 kt15:39 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 10.8 kt15:49 · avg 8.0 kt · gust 10.3 kt15:59 · avg 7.6 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:09 · avg 7.9 kt · gust 10.3 kt16:19 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:29 · avg 6.2 kt · gust 10.3 kt16:39 · avg 6.0 kt · gust 9.2 kt16:49 · avg 4.3 kt · gust 6.5 kt16:59 · avg 4.2 kt · gust 6.5 kt17:09 · avg 3.4 kt · gust 4.9 kt17:19 · avg 2.7 kt · gust 4.9 kt17:29 · avg 3.3 kt · gust 6.5 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 16, 2026 · as written at the time

MAYBE

dew-point spread 2.4°C — air too moist, solar energy lost to evaporation

🤖 ML — logistic experimental GO GO 40% · MAYBE 35% · NO GO 25%

Strongest inputs — (+) Bolzano pressure, Innsbruck pressure, daytime cloud.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental GO GO 76% · MAYBE 24% · NO GO 0%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, Munich pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.