Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23 Thu Oct 22
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Sep 27, 2026

81106:0021:0007:59 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 8.6 kt08:09 · avg 5.5 kt · gust 7.6 kt08:19 · avg 5.1 kt · gust 8.6 kt08:29 · avg 4.8 kt · gust 8.6 kt08:39 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 9.2 kt08:49 · avg 8.1 kt · gust 10.8 kt08:59 · avg 6.9 kt · gust 8.6 kt09:09 · avg 5.7 kt · gust 10.3 kt09:19 · avg 6.8 kt · gust 8.6 kt09:27 · avg 6.8 kt · gust 8.6 kt10:29 · avg 6.2 kt · gust 7.6 kt10:30 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 7.6 kt11:13 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt11:59 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt12:09 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt12:13 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt12:29 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt12:35 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt13:19 · avg 9.2 kt · gust 10.8 kt13:29 · avg 9.5 kt · gust 10.8 kt13:39 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:49 · avg 4.5 kt · gust 11.9 kt13:59 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 11.9 kt14:09 · avg 10.1 kt · gust 11.9 kt14:19 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 11.9 kt14:29 · avg 5.8 kt · gust 10.8 kt14:39 · avg 3.4 kt · gust 9.2 kt14:49 · avg 8.1 kt · gust 11.9 kt14:59 · avg 9.9 kt · gust 11.9 kt15:09 · avg 10.3 kt · gust 13.5 kt15:19 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 13.0 kt15:29 · avg 10.3 kt · gust 13.0 kt15:39 · avg 10.5 kt · gust 13.0 kt15:49 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt15:59 · avg 10.2 kt · gust 11.9 kt16:09 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 11.9 kt16:19 · avg 10.6 kt · gust 13.5 kt16:29 · avg 9.9 kt · gust 13.0 kt16:39 · avg 9.9 kt · gust 13.0 kt16:49 · avg 9.0 kt · gust 11.9 kt16:59 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 11.9 kt17:09 · avg 7.3 kt · gust 10.3 kt17:19 · avg 7.0 kt · gust 9.2 kt17:29 · avg 7.1 kt · gust 8.6 kt17:39 · avg 6.6 kt · gust 8.6 kt17:49 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 9.2 kt17:59 · avg 5.5 kt · gust 7.6 kt18:09 · avg 2.3 kt · gust 4.9 kt18:19 · avg 1.7 kt · gust 4.3 kt18:29 · avg 1.7 kt · gust 4.3 kt18:36 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Sep 27, 2026 · as written at the time

MAYBE

dew-point spread 1.6°C — air too moist, solar energy lost to evaporation

🤖 ML — logistic experimental GO GO 61% · MAYBE 24% · NO GO 15%

Strongest inputs — (+) Bolzano pressure, dew-point spread, daytime cloud.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental GO GO 57% · MAYBE 40% · NO GO 3%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.