Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23 Thu Oct 22
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Sep 24, 2026

81106:0021:0008:17 · avg 5.9 kt · gust 7.6 kt08:29 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:39 · avg 5.2 kt · gust 9.2 kt08:49 · avg 8.0 kt · gust 13.0 kt08:59 · avg 3.6 kt · gust 7.6 kt09:09 · avg 6.4 kt · gust 9.2 kt09:19 · avg 5.1 kt · gust 10.3 kt09:29 · avg 4.9 kt · gust 16.2 kt09:39 · avg 4.1 kt · gust 10.8 kt09:49 · avg 6.5 kt · gust 14.6 kt09:59 · avg 5.8 kt · gust 13.0 kt10:09 · avg 7.6 kt · gust 14.6 kt10:19 · avg 9.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt10:29 · avg 9.3 kt · gust 16.2 kt10:39 · avg 13.1 kt · gust 20.5 kt10:49 · avg 12.4 kt · gust 21.6 kt10:59 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 18.9 kt11:09 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 22.1 kt11:19 · avg 13.1 kt · gust 25.9 kt11:29 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 24.8 kt11:39 · avg 10.5 kt · gust 23.2 kt11:49 · avg 8.1 kt · gust 13.0 kt11:59 · avg 10.1 kt · gust 17.8 kt12:09 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:19 · avg 9.6 kt · gust 20.0 kt12:29 · avg 8.0 kt · gust 15.1 kt12:39 · avg 8.6 kt · gust 17.8 kt12:49 · avg 9.0 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:59 · avg 7.7 kt · gust 17.3 kt13:09 · avg 7.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt13:19 · avg 9.5 kt · gust 18.9 kt13:29 · avg 8.5 kt · gust 16.2 kt13:39 · avg 5.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt13:49 · avg 5.5 kt · gust 9.2 kt13:59 · avg 4.2 kt · gust 7.6 kt14:09 · avg 4.3 kt · gust 9.2 kt14:19 · avg 5.0 kt · gust 10.3 kt14:29 · avg 5.4 kt · gust 9.2 kt17:14 · avg 9.6 kt · gust 13.5 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Sep 24, 2026 · as written at the time

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 41 kt — valley decoupled

⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental MAYBE GO 8% · MAYBE 61% · NO GO 31%

Strongest inputs — (+) pressure Δ (thermik); (−) dew-point spread, morning solar.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental MAYBE GO 19% · MAYBE 46% · NO GO 35%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.