Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Tue Sep 22 Wed Oct 21
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 20, 2026

81106:0021:0008:29 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:31 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:59 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:09 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt09:19 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:29 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 1.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:49 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:59 Β· avg 4.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:09 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:19 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:29 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:39 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:49 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:59 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:09 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt11:19 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt11:29 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:37 Β· avg 2.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:49 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:59 Β· avg 3.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:00 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:19 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:20 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:39 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt12:44 Β· avg 3.9 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt12:54 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt13:29 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt13:39 Β· avg 9.6 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt13:49 Β· avg 11.4 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt13:59 Β· avg 7.1 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:09 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt14:19 Β· avg 4.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:29 Β· avg 12.0 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt14:39 Β· avg 12.5 kt Β· gust 20.0 kt14:49 Β· avg 16.9 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt14:59 Β· avg 18.6 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt15:09 Β· avg 16.7 kt Β· gust 22.1 kt15:19 Β· avg 17.3 kt Β· gust 24.3 kt15:29 Β· avg 16.7 kt Β· gust 23.2 kt15:39 Β· avg 15.9 kt Β· gust 24.8 kt15:49 Β· avg 15.8 kt Β· gust 22.1 kt15:59 Β· avg 15.2 kt Β· gust 21.6 kt16:09 Β· avg 14.2 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt16:19 Β· avg 13.6 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt16:29 Β· avg 13.2 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt16:39 Β· avg 13.6 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt16:49 Β· avg 13.3 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt16:59 Β· avg 10.8 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt17:09 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt17:19 Β· avg 5.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt17:29 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt17:39 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:49 Β· avg 10.0 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt17:59 Β· avg 6.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt18:09 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 20, 2026

NO GO

850 hPa 19 kt from 207Β° (SSE) β€” counters the N-thermal

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental GO GO 53% Β· MAYBE 8% Β· NO GO 39%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”, dew-point spread; (βˆ’) pressure Ξ” (thermik).

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 5% Β· MAYBE 0% Β· NO GO 95%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, Munich pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.