Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Wed Sep 23 Thu Oct 22
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 7, 2026

81106:0021:0008:19 Β· avg 9.8 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt08:29 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt08:39 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt08:49 Β· avg 8.3 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt08:59 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt09:09 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt09:19 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt09:29 Β· avg 6.0 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 4.7 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt09:49 Β· avg 3.6 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:59 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:09 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:19 Β· avg 1.3 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:29 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:39 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:49 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:59 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt11:09 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt11:19 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt11:29 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt11:39 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt11:49 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt11:59 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:09 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:13 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:29 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:39 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt12:49 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt12:59 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:09 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt13:19 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt13:29 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:39 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:49 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt13:59 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt14:02 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt14:18 Β· avg 0.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt14:29 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:39 Β· avg 6.7 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:49 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:59 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:09 Β· avg 9.2 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt15:19 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt15:29 Β· avg 4.0 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt15:39 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt15:49 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt15:59 Β· avg 0.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt16:03 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt16:47 Β· avg 2.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 7, 2026 Β· as written at the time

NO GO

850 hPa 14 kt from 206Β° (SSE) β€” counters the N-thermal

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental GO GO 34% Β· MAYBE 34% Β· NO GO 32%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”, daytime cloud; (βˆ’) dew-point spread.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 7% Β· MAYBE 24% Β· NO GO 70%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, overnight cloud.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.