Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Tue Sep 22 Wed Oct 21
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Oct 17, 2026

81106:0021:0008:19 · avg 2.5 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:29 · avg 1.3 kt · gust 3.2 kt08:39 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt08:49 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt08:59 · avg 0.7 kt · gust 2.2 kt09:09 · avg 0.6 kt · gust 2.2 kt09:19 · avg 1.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:29 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt09:39 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.5 kt09:49 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt09:59 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt10:09 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt10:19 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 1.6 kt10:29 · avg 0.2 kt · gust 1.6 kt10:39 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt10:49 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 2.2 kt10:59 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 2.2 kt11:09 · avg 0.9 kt · gust 1.6 kt11:19 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt11:29 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 4.3 kt11:39 · avg 7.8 kt · gust 14.6 kt11:49 · avg 12.1 kt · gust 16.2 kt11:59 · avg 11.8 kt · gust 17.3 kt12:09 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 17.3 kt12:19 · avg 12.4 kt · gust 15.1 kt12:29 · avg 11.5 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:39 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 14.6 kt12:49 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 13.5 kt12:59 · avg 11.8 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:09 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:19 · avg 10.3 kt · gust 13.0 kt13:29 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:39 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:49 · avg 10.7 kt · gust 13.0 kt13:59 · avg 10.0 kt · gust 13.0 kt14:09 · avg 10.5 kt · gust 13.0 kt14:19 · avg 10.9 kt · gust 13.5 kt14:29 · avg 11.6 kt · gust 13.5 kt14:39 · avg 11.6 kt · gust 13.5 kt14:49 · avg 11.7 kt · gust 13.5 kt14:59 · avg 13.0 kt · gust 14.6 kt15:09 · avg 13.0 kt · gust 14.6 kt15:19 · avg 13.1 kt · gust 15.1 kt15:29 · avg 12.4 kt · gust 15.1 kt15:39 · avg 12.6 kt · gust 15.1 kt15:49 · avg 13.2 kt · gust 16.2 kt15:59 · avg 12.8 kt · gust 16.2 kt16:09 · avg 11.6 kt · gust 16.2 kt16:19 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 14.6 kt16:29 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 14.6 kt16:39 · avg 12.2 kt · gust 16.2 kt16:41 · avg 13.5 kt · gust 15.1 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 17, 2026

GO

8 of 14 rules green.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental NO GO GO 31% · MAYBE 31% · NO GO 38%

Strongest inputs — (+) yesterday rain; (−) morning solar, rained yesterday.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental MAYBE GO 3% · MAYBE 62% · NO GO 34%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, overnight cloud.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.